The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) says “bullish” factors on the coffee production sector are starting to outweigh “bearish” influences, as the price of coffee continues to search for a direction.
In its May 2025 Coffee Market Report, the ICO’s Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) saw coffee prices average 334.41 cents/lb in the month of May, a 0.4 per cent decrease from April to reach a four-month low, and the lowest price since January 2025.
Despite this decrease, the average cost of coffee in May 2025 was still 60.5 per cent higher than May 2024, with the 12-month rolling average now 288.7 US cents/lb.
The main factor contributing to the strength of coffee sales is the overall positive outcome of the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which indicates household spending remains strong because of low-rising debt and the low rate at which savings are declining.
Bearish factors impacting the price of coffee are listed by the ICO as being an initial supply forecast increase from major producing countries. A harvest increase of 0.2 per cent is being increased for Brazil’s 2024/25 crop, with an eight per cent increase now forecast for Peru’s 2025/26 harvest.
The suspension of Houthi attacks could also contribute to the improvement of transit times for shipments of East African coffees to Europe, while ongoing uncertainty regarding United States trade tariffs remains.
Global green bean exports totalled 10.2 million bags in May, a 6.8 per cent reduction on the 10.94 million bags of green bean exports recorded in April.
Colombian Mild exports increased 1.1 per cent to 0.87 million bags from 0.86 million bags in April, while Other Milds were up 1.5 per cent to 2.16 million bags from 2.13 million bags.
Reductions of 14.4 per cent (3.19 million bags from 3.73 million bags) in Brazilian Naturals exports and 5.8 per cent (3.98 million bags from 4.23 million bags) in Robustas were the major reasons for the overall green bean reduction.
Arabica’s share of total green bean exports for the first seven months of 2024/25 to April 2025 increased to 63.3 per cent from 59.9 per cent over the same period a year ago.
Africa continued its year-on-year export rise, with its 1.8 million bags in exported in April 2025 a 30.2 per cent increase on the 1.38 million bags in April 2024.
In the same time period, Asia and Oceania were up 8.3 per cent to 4.14 million bags, Mexico and Central America were up 4.1 per cent to 1.78 million bags, while South America has endured a 28.4 per cent decrease.
South America totalled 3.71 million bags in April 2025, compared to 5.18 million bags in April 2024.
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